Summary

The 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (NASEM 2018; hereafter “the decadal survey”) was released in 2018. Since that time, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has made limited progress in achieving the goals established by that report, while at the same time, the importance of the study of Earth’s interacting systems has increased as global change has accelerated and its impacts have become even more apparent.

As charged by the statement of task (Appendix A), the Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey—Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space examined progress toward the goals outlined by the decadal survey by reviewing accomplishments and assessing any broad changes that have occurred that would require the decadal survey recommendations to be reexamined. While the decadal survey encompasses NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the statement of task was limited to NASA with regard to recommended actions (Tasks 5 and 7) and to comments related to the vitality and diversity of scientists and engineers (Task 7).

Early in its work, the committee sent a request for information to the broad science community involved with NASA missions to assess its views on progress. The responses were overwhelmingly positive about the new satellites and their capabilities. The scientific community is enthusiastic about new capabilities provided by Earth observing satellite missions. Among many scientific achievements, the fleet of existing and recently launched satellites and instruments has provided new capabilities to track and help understand methane leaks, sea-level rise, groundwater pumping, deforestation, wildfires, ocean surface topography, ocean primary productivity, and glacial outburst floods and has enabled significant improvements in a variety of applications, such as wildfire management, conservation of water resources, and risk reduction of extreme heat, flooding, and landslides.

Throughout its work, however, the committee found that progress has been slow relative to the decadal survey recommendations, especially given the increasing urgency caused by disruptions and damages from weather and climate events and despite significant excitement in the broad scientific community regarding recently launched satellite missions from the pre-decadal survey program of record. The COVID-19

pandemic, inflation, and mission delays have all increased the projected cost of missions in development, and the decision to expand Landsat’s capabilities has increased its cost to NASA, all while the top line budget for the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) has remained essentially flat. This has forced NASA to consider significant revisions to its program. A major reason for the slow progress in implementing the decadal survey priorities, however, is that NASA ESD has not followed the decadal survey’s decision rules regarding how to respond to budget pressures and not made timely decisions to enable progress on what is implementable.

Against this backdrop, the pressing near-term challenges presented by climate change and the need for actionable data and better scientific information to assist decision-making have increased significantly since the decadal survey. Satellite records are critical in efforts to monitor the impacts of climate change on local communities, understand climate feedbacks to improve prediction, and document the effectiveness of emission reductions strategies at home and abroad.

This report contains the committee’s major findings and recommendations, together with the broader context needed to understand their genesis and interpretation. The main report is organized to include (1) the details of the study, (2) the science highlights alluded to above, (3) an assessment of progress toward the decadal survey vision, (4) opportunities to improve alignment with the decadal survey priorities, and (5) considerations for preparing for the next decadal survey. In this summary, the committee instead starts by highlighting recommendations related to current and projected budget pressures, followed by the opportunities to improve alignment with the decadal survey priorities and then preparing for the next decadal survey.

CURRENT AND PROJECTED BUDGET PRESSURES

Satellite records are critical in efforts to monitor the impacts of climate change on local communities, understand climate feedbacks to improve prediction, and document the effectiveness of emission reductions at home and abroad. Given the observed rapid pace of climate and environmental changes, the need for actionable information based on satellite observations is increasing rapidly to better inform society, assist in the process of decision making, and protect society and human lives.

Despite the urgency of climate change, the growing list of observations needed to address adaptation and mitigation efforts, and federal investments in a variety of climate-related policies, NASA’s ESD budget has remained essentially flat in recent years when inflation is considered (Figure S-1). The lack of sufficient top line budget has constrained NASA’s ability to meet the increasing demands for its data and insights gained from research and applications. At current levels of funding, NASA cannot be expected to deliver on the needs for both providing long-term measurement continuity and new and improved observations.

It is evident that NASA ESD is being stretched as it attempts to address multiple competing priorities. In the context of a flat budget, priorities for science and technology innovation directly compete with needs to continue current observations of Earth’s changing climate, which resulted from previous innovation. In addition, while the decadal survey outlined steps to be taken if budgets for specific recommended program elements grew beyond their allocated targets, it could not account for new requirements levied upon the agencies by stakeholders other than the science and applications community during the decade.

Recommendation: NASA should clearly articulate the substantial societal value and urgency of implementing the full set of the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018) priorities as well as its need for appropriate resources to do so. It is imperative that NASA’s Earth Science Division develop the framework to quickly assess and communicate what must be

sacrificed when requirements imposed by its other stakeholders supplant the science and applications community’s priorities as expressed in the decadal survey. (Chapter 2)

NASA has made regular practice of engaging with international partners to share mission costs and expand science opportunities beyond what would have been possible by working independently. This pattern of strong international engagement has continued with Designated program element¹ missions. For example, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG)-Thermal Infrared (TIR) is a partnership with the Italian Space Agency (ASI). The Atmospheric Observing System study team has established strong working relationships with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Centre National D’Études Spatiales (CNES), the Canadian Space Agency, and ASI to explore potential partnership opportunities.

The private sector is rapidly ramping up diverse capabilities for Earth observation from space. Through the Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) program, NASA has been able to acquire a limited amount of data from a number of commercial providers and make these data available to Earth science investigators for evaluation. Commercial data sets often target applications of great interest to the Earth science community, but they need to be properly vetted, and this is done through the CSDA program.

With more partners, however, NASA should also consider greater funding for U.S. investigators to contribute to science and science teams for partner-led missions that address its science priorities, instead of funding science teams almost exclusively for its own missions.

Recommendation: NASA should expand funding opportunities for U.S. investigators to participate in and exploit data from international, interagency, and commercial endeavors. (Chapter 2)

Budget data provided by NASA shows that funding for the Program of Record did not taper off as fast as anticipated, and the Multi-Mission Operations (now called Earth Science Data Systems) budget wedge grew. Growth in individual program elements, without top line budget growth, does not support the healthy programmatic balance called for in the decadal survey because it impacts other program elements. NASA has been uneven in its response to decadal survey recommendations and has not followed the decadal survey’s decision rules regarding how to respond to budget pressures.

Recommendation: Consistent with the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018) and the Earth System Observatory Independent Review Board recommendations (ESO IRB 2022; NASA 2022, response 23), NASA’s Earth Science Division should seek advice from the National Academies’ Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space prior to adding or substantially modifying individual program elements to ensure appropriate consideration of program balance and decadal survey priorities. (Chapter 3)

As is also evident in Figure S-1, NASA’s flight program plans include significant new funding for Landsat Next when compared to the decadal survey recommendations (the decadal survey recommendations are reprinted in Appendix C). This change follows a multiyear user engagement activity in which Landsat users, stakeholders, and the USGS/NASA Landsat science team provided their observation improvement priorities to meet emerging needs, and the Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program put forth its plans for Landsat 9’s successor, dubbed “Landsat Next.”

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¹ The committee reviewed each of the five program elements associated with implementing the 2017 decadal survey’s recommended observation priorities (i.e., Program of Record, Designated, Earth System Explorer, Incubation, and Venture) as well as other key NASA ESD program elements to identify opportunities to improve alignment with decadal survey priorities.

While NASA and USGS partner through the SLI program to ensure continuity of the 50-year Landsat record, Landsat Next goes substantially beyond providing simple continuity of the existing Landsat observations. Landsat Next will instead provide more than twice as many spectral bands as Landsat 8/9 with spatial resolution improved by a factor of two and 6-day repeat coverage with three satellites in orbit.

This increase in performance, however, comes at significantly increased cost—to NASA for mission development and to USGS owing to the associated increased demands on ground system development—impacting other program elements at NASA and USGS.

The committee acknowledges the significant challenge of balancing the needs and priorities of users of an operational Landsat program with the priorities of the Earth system science and applications community as a whole. When substantial increases to Landsat Next are not accompanied with an overall budget increase, the result is a significant impact on the rest of the program. Yet, NASA’s decision to proceed with the Landsat Next program was made without advice by the National Academies or other appropriate organization on how to best address its impact on programmatic balance and other decadal survey priorities.

Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should pursue funding needed to cover the increase in Landsat Next’s scope and budget that was not anticipated at the time of the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018). Otherwise, the increased Landsat Next budget substantially limits resources available to achieve the Earth science vision laid out in the 2017 decadal survey. (Chapter 3)

In general, ESD maintains regular communications with the community via webinars (hosted by both the Science Mission Directorate and ESD) and ESD town halls at American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society annual meetings. From the requests for information collected as part of this midterm review, it is clear that the community appreciates these communication opportunities. However, when there are budget shortfalls, such as the current situation for ESD, it is crucial to communicate expected program impacts (e.g., descoped mission plans, mission delays, changes in solicitation schedules) and to help the community understand how and why decisions are made.

Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should improve its communication with the community to provide the rationale for the decisions it makes particularly in the face of inadequate resources, including providing timely information about program plans, budgets, and anticipated solicitation timelines through town halls, webinars, and via the NASA website. (Chapter 4)

OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE ALIGNMENT WITH THE DECADAL SURVEY PRIORITIES

During the final writing stages of this report in mid-March 2024, the president’s FY 2025 budget request for NASA was released that significantly modified the plans that had been presented to the committee regarding the Designated program element. Because this report is based on a bottom-up review of the program to date, and because the conclusions that this report reached are in many cases similar to the changes suggested in the president’s budget request, the committee believed it appropriate to leave recommendations it had reached consensus on unchanged, but to follow those recommendations with short notes regarding the similarities and differences between them and the FY 2025 budget request.

Recommendation: To address budgetary challenges, NASA should follow the guidance provided in the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018), retaining competitive opportunities in the Earth System Explorer and Earth Venture lines, and implementing the Designated

program element missions to the extent possible within current constraints and consistent with the decadal survey’s identified descopes. (Chapter 4)

The committee reviewed each of the five program elements associated with implementing the decadal survey’s recommended observation priorities (i.e., Program of Record, Designated, Earth System Explorer, Incubation, and Venture) as well as other key NASA ESD program elements to identify opportunities to improve alignment with decadal survey priorities.

Designated

Surface Biology and Geology

The decadal survey recommended that NASA develop a mission to address the SBG-Targeted Observable with a maximum NASA development cost of $650 million (FY 2018). Furthermore, based on relative cost and risk, the decadal survey suggested it be the first of the three larger Designated missions implemented.

Progress on the SBG Targeted Observable has been promising overall. The success of EMIT² (Visible to ShortWave InfraRed [VSWIR]) and ECOSTRESS³ (TIR) onboard the International Space Station have demonstrated the promise of SBG and NASA is proceeding to address the decadal survey’s SBG recommendation through two missions: SBG-VSWIR and SBG-TIR. The latter is to be implemented as a partnership with ASI.

Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should proceed with both the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG)-Visible to ShortWave InfraRed and SBG-Thermal Infrared missions without further delay in order to minimize cost and maximize achievable overlap. (Chapter 4)

Atmospheric Observing System

The decadal survey recommended that NASA develop a mission to address Aerosols (Targeted Observable 1 [TO-1] and TO-2) with a maximum NASA development cost of $800 million (FY 2018). The decadal survey indicated there would be substantial synergies if overlap was possible with the Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Designated mission—however, the decadal survey also noted the Aerosols primary mission focus should be to meet the aerosol science objectives as described, and remain within the cost cap.

The decadal survey also recommended that NASA develop a mission to address Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (TO-5) with a maximum NASA development cost of $800 million (FY 2018).

Recognizing the close relationship between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation and to optimize science and application benefits, NASA developed what it calls the Atmospheric Observing System (AOS) mission to respond to both the Aerosols (addressing TO-1 and TO-2) and the Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (addressing TO-5) Targeted Observables. The currently proposed architecture involves two large missions, AOS-Storm and AOS-Sky, which together address objectives beyond those described in the decadal survey.

Recommendation: NASA should fully implement the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey’s (NASEM 2018) prescribed descopes for the Aerosols and Clouds, Convection, and

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² EMIT is NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation mission.

³ ECOSTRESS is NASA’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station mission.

Precipitation Targeted Observables, adding two Earth System Explorer solicitations to the program with Targeted Observable 1 (TO-1) and TO-2 eligible to compete and pursuing a simpler single band radar mission responsive to TO-5. (Chapter 4)

Mass Change

The decadal survey recommended that NASA develop a mission to ensure continuity of the Mass Change Targeted Observable with a maximum NASA development cost of $300 million (FY 2018). The decadal survey indicated that staying below this cost cap was expected to entail down-selecting to a single measurement technology and also encouraged NASA to seek an international partner for the mission. By the time of this midterm assessment, NASA had established an international partnership with Germany (German Aerospace Center [DLR]/German Research Centre for Geosciences [GFZ]) to implement GRACE-C (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity) to address the Mass Change Targeted Observable. GRACE-C will leverage the Laser Ranging Interferometer instrument demonstrated on GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On) to retain its significant performance improvement over the previous GRACE microwave instrument. To stay within available funding constraints, the Independent Review Board found the mission was taking on “high risk for a mission of [its] cost” and noted concerns regarding the potential for accelerometer failure performance (ESO IRB 2022).

Recommendation: While it is appropriate to implement the GRACE-C (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity) mission on its current timeline, NASA should identify a long-term solution for achieving measurement continuity beyond GRACE-C at lower cost to the agency. (Chapter 4)

Surface Deformation and Change

The decadal survey recommended NASA develop a mission to provide measurements of surface deformation and change post-NISAR (NASA-ISRO [Indian Space Research Organisation] Synthetic Aperture Radar) with a maximum recommended NASA development cost of $500 million (FY 2018). The decadal survey recognized this funding level would not provide continuity through reflight of a NISAR-like mission, and instead recommended NASA consider international partnerships, reduced spatial resolution in favor of improved temporal resolution, and consideration of innovative implementation approaches.

Recommendation: NASA should engage with the European Copernicus program to explore ways to meet the science objectives tied to the Surface Deformation and Change Targeted Observable through a potential collaboration. Unmet science and continuity objectives should be re-evaluated once NISAR (NASA-ISRO [Indian Space Research Organisation] Synthetic Aperture Radar) data become available. (Chapter 4)

Earth System Explorer

NASA has been slow to implement the Earth System Explorer program element. The first Earth System Explorer solicitation was only released in 2023, with NASA intending to make two selections in 2025 for launch in 2030 and 2032.

NASA’s cadence of Earth System Explorer solicitation opportunities is inconsistent with the priority placed on the program element by the decadal survey. The decadal survey committee states that in the context of limited budgets it places the “highest priority on continuity of critical missions, followed by

competitive opportunities in the Earth System Explorer and Earth Venture lines, followed by the large missions” (NASEM 2018, p. 197).

Venture

The Earth Venture program element was reviewed in 2022 (NASEM 2022b) and found to be working fairly well. However, recently announced plans to reduce the number of solicitations and define them only closer to the solicitation time provides programmatic flexibility but does not serve to provide the community with either regular, frequent open call opportunities or an ability to plan ahead.

Incubation

In recognition that some Targeted Observables, despite their high priority, lacked sufficient maturity to be ready for low-risk flight implementation, the decadal survey recommended a new Incubation program element that would involve “a coordinated program of strategic investments in technology, research, modeling, or data system development ... toward maturing the overall measurement concepts” (NASEM 2018, p. 150). NASA has implemented Incubation programs for the Planetary Boundary Layer and Surface Topography and Vegetation Targeted Observables. They are worthwhile and working well overall.

Anticipating that budgets for Designated, Earth System Explorer, Incubation, and Venture program elements will fluctuate, and that the budget for some missions might change as they are being executed, NASA ESD could benefit from greater interactions with advisory committees.

Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should take full advantage of its meetings with National Academies’ Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space to seek feedback on its implementation plans to facilitate more timely decisions and maintain alignment with the Earth science and applications from space decadal survey recommendations, even as its budget fluctuates from year to year. (Chapter 3)

Sustainable Land Imaging (NASA and USGS)

Through the SLI program, NASA and USGS partner to ensure continuity of the 50-year Landsat record for research and operational users. NASA is responsible for developing space and launch segments, and USGS is responsible for collecting user needs, developing and maintaining ground systems, processing and distributing science data to users, and operating on-orbit spacecraft.

Following a multiyear user engagement activity in which Landsat users, stakeholders, and the USGS/NASA Landsat science team provided their observation improvement priorities to meet emerging needs, the SLI program put forth its plans for Landsat 9’s successor, dubbed “Landsat Next.” The planned increases in performance come at significant cost—both to NASA for mission development and to USGS owing to the associated increased demands on ground system development—impacting other program elements at NASA and USGS.

PREPARING FOR THE NEXT DECADAL SURVEY

Prior to the next decadal survey, scheduled for the 2027/2028 timeframe, NASA ESD has the opportunity to further improve its diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA) strategies, expand the breadth of stakeholders that actively participate in decadal survey activities, better engage the Earth system

modeling community to understand observation priorities to improve climate projections, and develop a much-needed strategic framework to address needs for “continuity” as long-term records and monitoring needs for both science and societal applications continue to increase.

In recent years, NASA has had two key reports commissioned to examine its efforts toward enhancing workforce vitality and diversity which were published nearly simultaneously in 2022 (NASEM 2022a,c). These reports indicate the progress and challenges that NASA has faced in implementing DEIA objectives for its current workforce, mission science teams, educational partners, and other partnering institutions. NASA ESD has made substantial effort yet shows less progress in enhancing workforce vitality and diversity, relative to other divisions.

Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) should better coordinate systematic diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility plans across all of its program elements, to provide holistic end-to-end support for underrepresented groups in Earth system science, and to ensure routine formal review. These plans should be supported by NASA’s ESD with appropriate and sustainable budget allocations and include ongoing opportunities for training, principal investigator development, mission engagement at all career and leadership levels, and sharing best practices. (Chapter 5)

The rapid increase in both the interest and need of Earth observations has resulted in an exponential growth of their use to advance science and applications, support operational decisions, and address a broad myriad of societal needs.

Recommendation: Prior to the next decadal review, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey should engage a broader Earth sciences constituency by

• Identifying Earth observation stakeholders, improving understanding of their short- and long-term needs, and encouraging participation of the community of stakeholders in the next decadal survey. These stakeholder groups should include both the scientific community and communities impacted by climate change, including historically marginalized and underrepresented groups that are often disproportionately impacted.
• Sponsoring workshops to engage the entire Earth system community to better address observational needs for interdisciplinary and crosscutting issues. The workshops should
  • Gather input on priorities,
  • Communicate expected program resource constraints to help set expectations,
  • Sensitize participants to the need for working within a holistic Earth system science rather than disciplinary framework when considering implementation options,
  • Support development of brief reports outlining community progress and expressing observation needs at discipline and crosscutting topic area levels (e.g., sea level, modeling), and
  • Ensure systematic representation of interdisciplinary topics to ensure they do not fall through the gaps in community organization. (Chapter 5)

With the current emphasis on developing strategies to enable adaptation to climate change, there is a need to improve the quality of Earth system prediction on a variety of timescales (ranging from hours to a century) to improve the spatial scale of information provided and to more robustly characterize uncertainties. Earth system modeling, however, is done in different ways in different parts of NASA as well as other centers, including the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research (Community Earth System Model), NOAA (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and the Department of Energy (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) to meet various agency needs.

Recommendation: Through requests for information and workshops, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey should more actively engage the Earth system modeling community to devise strategies to more fully exploit existing and potential Earth observations for advancing model parameterizations and predictions. (Chapter 5)

Despite rapid changes in climate and life on Earth, and expectations that more comprehensive, detailed, and sustained monitoring will be required to thrive on our changing planet going forward, as noted in the decadal survey, the United States still lacks a strategic framework for ensuring the continuity of key Earth observations beyond specific missions such as Landsat and GRACE, which have developed large user communities that demand continuity for societal and economic benefit. As space-based Earth observations are increasingly used in applications that impact daily life, the number of stakeholders relying on remote sensing data, and the types of data they rely on, have grown significantly.

The decadal survey (NASEM 2018) recognized that “achieving the appropriate balance between investments to maintain continuity versus the development of new measurement capabilities is a longstanding challenge” (p. 192) and recommended that NASA ESD “lead development of a more formal continuity decision process to determine which satellite measurements have the highest priority for continuation” (p. 195). However, despite growing reliance on long-term measurement records and the budget implications associated with responding to increasing calls for continuity, a formal decision process has not been implemented to date.

Instead, current ESD decisions with regard to observation continuity remain ad hoc and do not generally communicate what future observations will be prioritized or how budgets need to expand in order to accommodate new and sustained observations. There is an urgent need to follow Recommendation 4.6 from the decadal survey, including its call to “ensure that no flight program element is compromised by overruns in any other element” and “lead development of a more formal continuity decision process (as in NASEM, 2015) to determine which satellite measurements have the highest priority for continuation, then work with U.S. and international partners to develop an international strategy for obtaining and sharing those measurements” (NASEM 2018, p. 195).

Proceeding in a manner that is contrary to this recommendation with respect to continuity has created unrealistic expectations in the science community and leaves NASA ESD without an effective mechanism to deal with future requests to add or expand monitoring programs such as Landsat Next in the absence of budget increases to support the increased scope.