Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts (2016)
Chapter: Appendix A: Committee's Statement of Task
APPENDIX A
Committee’s Statement of Task
An ad hoc committee will conduct a study that will identify opportunities to increase forecasting skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales based on the 2010 NRC report Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability and progress since. The report will describe a strategy to increase the nation’s scientific capability for research on S2S forecasting. The committee will develop a 10 year scientific research agenda to accelerate progress on extending prediction skill for weather and ocean forecasts from currently operational meso/synoptic scales to higher spatial and longer temporal resolutions to aid in decision making at medium and extended lead times. The committee’s report will cover
- Identification of potential sources of predictability and assessment of their relative value for advancing predictive skill;
- Identification of process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into models;
- Application and advancement of ocean-atmosphere-ice-land coupled models;
- Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;
- Uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products;
- Approaches to communicating this type of prediction in a way that is useful to and understandable by decision makers; and
- Computational and data storage and visualization infrastructure requirements.
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