Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism

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The United States and the world face serious threats to nuclear stability and peace, now and in the coming decades. Within the nuclear arena, U.S. policy makers will need to make strategic decisions related to nuclear risks to assist with long-term planning as well as responding in real time to unanticipated events. The occurrence of unanticipated nuclear events is expected to increase as more countries develop, expand, or field nuclear energy capability; more countries consider development of nuclear weapon capability and new nuclear weapon states emerge; and nuclear weapon states expand their nuclear arsenals.

At the request of the Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established and managed the Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism to explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the unclassified Phase 2 version of the final classified report. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II builds on an earlier Phase I unclassified report. This book expands upon the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy.

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60 pages · 8.5 x 11 · paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71825-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71826-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27745

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism was established and managed by the National Academies of Sciences, Medicine, and Engineering in response to a congressional mandate to independently explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the public, abbreviated version of the classified report.

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48 pages · 8.5 x 11 ·
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71308-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27393

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The assessment of risk is complex and often controversial. It is derived from the existence of a hazard, and it is characterized by the uncertainty of possible undesirable events and their outcomes. Few outcomes are as undesirable as nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. Over the decades, much has been written about particular situations, policies, and weapons that might affect the risks of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. The nature of the concerns and the risk analysis methods used to evaluate them have evolved considerably over time.

At the request of the Department of Defense, Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism discusses risks, explores the risk assessment literature, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of risk assessment approaches, and discusses some publicly available assumptions that underpin U.S. security strategies, all in the context of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism.

Publication information

170 pages · 7 x 10 · paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-68998-8
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-68999-6
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/26609

Suggested citation

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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